Last year, I visited New York and found myself walking through Greenwich Village. I couldn’t help but notice how the neighborhood looked qualitatively different from the 1940s photographs I’d seen and from my memories of it when I lived there more than 10 years ago. Sure, there were still some record stores and a few […]
The Next Chapter: Short-Term Thinking and Long-Term Planning Read More »
What do gold, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), paintings, furs and diamonds all have in common? Things you’ve seen on a “Real Housewives” episode, you say? Maybe so, but here’s what we had in mind. Each is an asset that produces no cash flow. They’re like buying a goose that lays no eggs. Unlike stocks and
What’s Up with Gold? Read More »
Declining interest rates are generally a good thing for bond returns. All else being equal, as bond yields go down, their prices go up. Many people are familiar with this relationship, but what about stocks? Can declining interest rates inform our expectations for future stock returns? This question has come into focus for many investors
What Do Declining Interest Rates Mean for Stock Returns? Read More »
“Don’t gamble,” Will Rogers said. “Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”1 The Psychology Behind Hindsight Bias The psychologist Baruch Fischhoff, who introduced us to hindsight shortcuts and errors, wrote, “In hindsight, people consistently exaggerate
Would You Drive Looking Through the Rear-View Mirror? Read More »
Confirmation errors mislead the proverbial dog that believes his bark makes UPS trucks go away. The dog can test his belief by seeking disconfirming evidence. How about not barking next time the UPS truck is in the driveway? If the truck stays in the driveway, that would be confirming evidence; however, if the truck leaves,
Irrational or Motivated? A Fresh Look at Confirmation Bias Read More »
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) — a key economic measure capturing the total value of goods and services produced — was recently announced at an estimated growth rate of 3.0% for the second quarter. This follows a -0.5% decline in the prior quarter, which was the first time quarterly U.S. GDP shrank in three years.
What’s in a GDP Number? Read More »
An elderly couple moving to an assisted living apartment calls their son in another state for help moving their belongings. A widow in her 90s finds it difficult to clean her home, yet refuses to hire help. These people are not wealthy, but neither are they poor. Each has more than enough to pay a
Don’t Leave the Best for Last: Moving from Accumulation to Decumulation Read More »
In a volatile year for U.S. stocks, the overall U.S. bond market has maintained a positive year-to-date total return throughout 2025. For investors allocating to balanced portfolios of both asset classes, bonds are likely to have played a useful role, sometimes helping offset periods of disappointing stock returns and reducing total portfolio volatility. However, this
Three Things Investors Should Know About Today’s Bond Market Read More »
A recent study from Morningstar’s Jeff Ptak estimates that the average U.S. fund investor held about 82% of their equity portfolios in U.S. stocks as of late 2024.1 Although the U.S. market has undoubtedly grown relative to non-U.S. stocks over the last 15 to 20 years (as shown in Figure 1), 82% is still far
Deglobalization, Currency Movements & the Case for Global Diversification Read More »
My daughter’s bus leaves her stop at 7:25 a.m. To get there with ample time, I know I need to leave our house at 7:15. Otherwise, I risk needing to text the other bus stop parents something along the lines of, “Hershfield family coming in hot! Please hold the bus for us!” which immediately prompts
The Headwinds vs. Tailwinds Asymmetry Read More »