It was another remarkable year for the U.S. stock market in 2025. The S&P 500® Index rose nearly 18% with 46 new all-time highs during the year! While undoubtedly a good outcome, a single return figure fails to capture the full experience of investors. Figure 1 helps fill in the gaps, capturing major headlines from
What Investors Can Learn From 2025 Market Trends Read More »
A recent study from Morningstar’s Jeff Ptak estimates that the average U.S. fund investor held about 82% of their equity portfolios in U.S. stocks as of late 2024.1 Although the U.S. market has undoubtedly grown relative to non-U.S. stocks over the last 15 to 20 years (as shown in Figure 1), 82% is still far
Deglobalization, Currency Movements & the Case for Global Diversification Read More »
My daughter’s bus leaves her stop at 7:25 a.m. To get there with ample time, I know I need to leave our house at 7:15. Otherwise, I risk needing to text the other bus stop parents something along the lines of, “Hershfield family coming in hot! Please hold the bus for us!” which immediately prompts
The Headwinds vs. Tailwinds Asymmetry Read More »
After a 26% total return from the S&P 500® Index in 2023, few predicted 2024 would deliver another big year of gains for U.S. stocks. But it did. Not only did the S&P 500 post a 25% return for the year, but the index reached 61 new all-time highs. Together, 2023 and 2024 form the
It’s Been a Whale of a Year Read More »
Have you ever written down, at the start of a year, predictions for what will happen in the year ahead? For investors, taking note of your beliefs about the market or economy and then coming back later to inspect can be a good exercise in understanding the difficulties of forecasting. It’s a lesson we can
2024 Market Forecasters’ Report Card Read More »
The US presidential election has concluded, but uncertainty remains about what comes next. For those focused on market returns, it can be helpful to look at the historical success of markets across presidencies. It’s important for investors to remember that whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about the future state of the world, you should be
Election Results Shouldn’t Dictate Your Investments Read More »
I often note that the biggest risks in life are not in the stock market. If you want real risk, I say, get married. And if you want more risk, have children. People laugh because the point is obvious. Yet that point is regularly lost when we speak about financial well-being, neglecting life well-being. Financial
Life Well-Being as a Portfolio Read More »
In recent weeks, several Wall Street market strategists have warned of lower expected returns for U.S. stocks over the next decade. Current valuations have been a common basis for these pessimistic views. The difficulty of predicting the absolute level of future stock returns over any period, particularly short periods, is well documented (see Welch and
What Today’s Valuations Are Telling Investors Read More »
Key Takeaways Japanese stocks experienced a historic single-day decline in early August. However, the market rebounded rather quickly. The decline was followed by a spike in global market volatility, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reaching levels seen only during major financial crises. Historically, as with this example, keeping focus on the long-term and staying
Not So Fast! Lessons From a Short-Term Panic Event Read More »