Examine why short-term economic forecasts often fail to match reality.

The Certain Uncertainty of Short-Run Economic Predictions

Bloomberg published an article near the end of December last year reporting outcomes from its latest monthly economic survey.1 Survey respondents included 38 economists who each offered a forecast for 2023. Like many at the time, the survey results were generally pessimistic about the economy. The survey’s median estimated growth rate for U.S. gross domestic […]

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