Resources and Stories for Real People

Declining interest rates are generally a good thing for bond returns. All else being equal, as bond yields go down, their prices go up. Many people are familiar with this relationship, but what about stocks? Can declining interest rates inform our expectations for future stock returns? This question has come

“Don’t gamble,” Will Rogers said. “Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”1 The Psychology Behind Hindsight Bias The psychologist Baruch Fischhoff, who introduced us to hindsight shortcuts and errors, wrote,

Confirmation errors mislead the proverbial dog that believes his bark makes UPS trucks go away. The dog can test his belief by seeking disconfirming evidence. How about not barking next time the UPS truck is in the driveway? If the truck stays in the driveway, that would be confirming evidence;

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) — a key economic measure capturing the total value of goods and services produced — was recently announced at an estimated growth rate of 3.0% for the second quarter. This follows a -0.5% decline in the prior quarter, which was the first time quarterly U.S.

An elderly couple moving to an assisted living apartment calls their son in another state for help moving their belongings. A widow in her 90s finds it difficult to clean her home, yet refuses to hire help. These people are not wealthy, but neither are they poor. Each has more

In a volatile year for U.S. stocks, the overall U.S. bond market has maintained a positive year-to-date total return throughout 2025. For investors allocating to balanced portfolios of both asset classes, bonds are likely to have played a useful role, sometimes helping offset periods of disappointing stock returns and reducing