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https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Great-Real-Estate-Chart-2.pnggreat real estate debate chart 2 https://arcadiawm.com/capturing-time/ 2022-09-15T17:02:16+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Capturing-Time.jpgcapturing time https://arcadiawm.com/third-quarter-2022-quarterly-market-review/ 2022-10-10T16:09:49+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022-QMR-Q3-Arcadia-Thumbnail.pngQ3 2022 Market Commentary https://arcadiawm.com/understanding-emotions-during-volatile-markets/ 2022-10-10T16:27:51+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Understanding-Emotions-During-Volatile-Markets.jpgUnderstanding emotions https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Understanding-Emotions-Figure-1-254x300.pngunderstanding emotions figure 1 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Understanding-Emotions-Figure-2-254x300.pngunderstanding emotions figure 2 https://arcadiawm.com/investing-through-tough-times-in-four-charts/ 2022-10-10T16:28:16+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Investing-Through-Tough-Times.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Investing-Through-Tough-Times-Chart-1-300x261.pngInvesting Through Tough Times Chart 1 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Investing-Through-Tough-Times-Chart-2-300x240.pnginvesting through tough times chart 2 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Investing-Through-Tough-Times-Chart-3-300x252.pnginvesting through tough times chart 3 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Investing-Through-Tough-Times-Chart-4-289x300.png https://arcadiawm.com/more-time-or-more-money-how-wealth-affects-what-we-value/ 2022-11-07T17:05:37+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-more-time-or-more-money.jpgtime vs money https://arcadiawm.com/investing-through-tough-times-bonds-edition/ 2022-11-07T17:21:55+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-investing-through-tough-times-1.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/investing-through-tough-times-fig-1-296x300.pngfigure 1 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/investing-through-tough-times-figure-2-1024x299.png https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/investing-through-tough-times-fig-3-300x296.pngfigure three https://arcadiawm.com/fourth-quarter-2022-quarterly-market-review/ 2023-01-10T17:50:50+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2022-QMR-Q4-Arcadia-Thumbnail-1.png https://arcadiawm.com/people-have-memories-markets-dont/ 2023-01-25T16:33:41+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Blog-Image-Cover-1-1.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/understanding-the-behavioral-advantage-and-trade-offs-of-bucket-portfolios/ 2023-02-08T19:16:24+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-23-Arcadia-Bucket-Portfolios.jpgbucket portfolios https://arcadiawm.com/sector-flip-flop/ 2023-02-08T19:46:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-2023-Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop.jpgsector flip flop https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop-Fig1-1.pngUS Sector https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop-Fig2-1024x441.pngUS Sector Return Ratings https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop-Fig3-1-1024x443.pngUS Return Rankings https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop-Fig4.pngmaterials sector https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Sector-Flip-Flop-Fig-5.pngUS Sector https://arcadiawm.com/what-you-might-not-know-about-asset-class-returns/ 2023-03-07T18:13:02+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Asset-Class-Returns.jpgasset class returns https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/asset-class-returns-figure-1-1-1024x710.pngasset class returns https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/asset-class-returns-figure-2-1024x673.pngasset class returns fig 2 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/asset-class-returns-figure-2-cont-1024x586.pngasset class returns fig 2 cont https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/asset-class-returns-figure-2-continued-1024x292.pngasset class returns fig 2 continued https://arcadiawm.com/are-americans-too-pessimistic-about-the-economy/ 2023-03-07T18:14:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-America-Economy.jpgAmerican economy https://arcadiawm.com/the-herd-mentality-that-drives-bank-runs/ 2023-04-10T20:26:05+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/04-2023-Arcadia-Herd-Mentality.jpgherd mentality https://arcadiawm.com/take-it-to-the-bank/ 2023-04-10T20:47:37+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/04-2023-Arcadia-take-it-to-the-bank.jpgTake it to the bank article image https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-1-Take-it-to-the-Bank-1024x667.pngU.S. bank deposits and the effective federal funds rate https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-2-Take-it-to-the-bank-1024x279.pngbanks are critical to a functioning economy and economic growth https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-3-Take-it-to-the-bank-1024x476.pngsignificant dollars flowed into government money market funds over the last three weeks in March https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-4-Take-it-to-the-bank-1024x562.pngmoney market flows and S&P 500 Index returns throughout 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/first-quarter-2023-quarterly-market-review/ 2023-04-10T20:54:34+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-QMR-Q1-Arcadia-Thumbnail-2.pngQMR Q1 2023 https://arcadiawm.com/how-do-we-and-how-should-we-set-goals-for-ourselves-and-others/ 2023-05-08T16:55:54+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/05-23-Arcadia-Setting-Goals.jpgWe explore why taking a rigid approach versus a flexible approach is more effective when planning, pursuing and attaining goals. https://arcadiawm.com/where-the-u-s-dollar-stands-as-a-reserve-currency/ 2023-05-08T16:56:50+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/05-23-Arcadia-U.S.-Dollar.jpgThe U.S. dollar remains the preferred reserve currency. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Fig-1-Composition-of-Global-Foreign-Exchange.pngcomposition of global foreign exchange reserves by currency https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Fig-2-the-dollar-strengthened-1024x945.pngThe dollar strengthened over a period of decline in share global reserves. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Fig-3-Share-of-Foreign-Exchange.pngShare of foreign exchange transactions by currency https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Fig-4-federal-reserve-index.pngFederal reserve index of international currency usage. https://arcadiawm.com/dont-let-ominous-economic-signs-deter-you-from-stocks/ 2023-06-06T13:17:38+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/MAY-2023-1.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/uTK3OTfjminGz1coYhnvdfBujtr7myjkpg.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/3-storylines-behind-the-market-in-2023/ 2023-06-07T16:51:05+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/06-2023-market-in-2023.jpgLearn why we believe basic investing principles and valuations remain crucial to navigating the markets over the long term https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-1.pngFunds investing in stocks have seen net outflows since March https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-2.pnglarge growth valuations are on the rise https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-3.pngU.S. stocks have led the way in 2023, but international stocks trade at lower valuations https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-4.pngFunds investing in stocks have seen net outflows since March https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-5.pngU.S. bank deposits have stabilized since late March https://arcadiawm.com/tripped-up-by-the-money-illusion/ 2023-06-07T16:52:42+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/06-2023-Money-Illusion.jpgOvercoming the money illusion trap can help your clients make more informed decisions. https://arcadiawm.com/second-quarter-2023-quarterly-market-review/ 2023-07-11T00:58:28+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-QMR-Q2-Arcadia-Thumbnail.pngquarterly market review https://arcadiawm.com/is-it-just-me-or-are-things-getting-worse/ 2023-07-11T01:47:53+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/07-2023-Arcadia-Morality-1.jpgmorality https://arcadiawm.com/then-and-now-an-update-on-todays-bond-market/ 2023-07-11T15:12:41+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/07-2023-Arcadia-bonds-market-1.jpgbond market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-1-1.pnghow times have changed https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-2.pngthe treasury curve looks different today than a year ago https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-3.pngcorporate bonds can offer opportunities for higher yields for longer https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-4-1024x610.pngcorporate bonds have historically outperformed treasuries https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-5-1024x276.pnginvestment grade bonds have historically had low default rates https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/then-and-now-figure-6.pngbond yields have typically moved ahead of rate changes from the fed https://arcadiawm.com/embrace-the-uncertainty/ 2023-07-19T17:09:00+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-embrace-the-uncertainty.jpgembrace the uncertainty https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-mind-the-gap-graphic-772x1024.pngmind the gap https://arcadiawm.com/its-personal-can-personalization-improve-nudges-on-financial-decisions/ 2023-09-08T18:04:13+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-its-personal.pngIt's Personal: Can Personalization Improve Nudges on Financial Decisions? https://arcadiawm.com/focus-on-the-horizon-tuning-out-the-noise-with-valuations-and-returns/ 2023-09-08T18:05:12+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Focus.pngfocusing on the horizon tuning out the noise with valuations and returns https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Focus-Figure-1.pngFigure 1 | Large Cap P/E Started the Year Near Average While Small Value Neared Its Historical Low https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Focus-Figure-2-1024x604.pngFigure 2 | Valuation Ratios tell you less about returns over shorter horizons vs longer ones https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Focus-Figure-3-916x1024.pngfigure 3 | stocks with more attractive valuations have outperformed the market over the long term https://arcadiawm.com/third-quarter-2023-quarterly-market-review/ 2023-10-11T18:40:33+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-Q3-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail.png https://arcadiawm.com/the-unheralded-contributions-of-markowitz-to-behavioral-portfolio-theory/ 2023-10-18T17:13:00+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-behavioral-portfolio-therapy.pngbehavioral portfolio theory https://arcadiawm.com/index-concentration-have-some-indexes-become-too-top-heavy/ 2023-10-18T17:27:15+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/index-concentration.pngindex concentration https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-1-1-857x1024.pngIndex concentration is greatest today among U.S. Large Caps https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-2-1-1024x525.pngU.S. large cap and large growth index concentration has been on the rise https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-fig-3-1-1024x718.pngIndexes hoilding U.S. large growth stocks are currently at concentration level highs while other indexes are near or below average https://arcadiawm.com/youre-cordially-invited-to-a-recital-celebrating-the-100th-anniversary-of-rhapsody-in-blue/ 2023-10-23T19:42:43+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Walter-Concert-Event-11_141.png https://arcadiawm.com/can-financial-mindfulness-help-enhance-outcomes-with-money/ 2023-11-06T21:15:20+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/11-23-AWM-financial-mindfulness.pngwe discuss the potentially transformative power of financial mindfulness. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Financial-Mindfulness-Fig-1-1024x523.pngmindfulness has surged in popularity since the 1990s https://arcadiawm.com/the-certain-uncertainty-of-short-run-economic-predictions/ 2023-11-06T21:26:08+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/11-23-AWM-short-run-economic-predictions-1.pngExamine why short term economic forecasts often fail to match reality. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Short-run-economic-predictions-fig-1-1024x620.pngHistorically, economic growth has occurred during periods of higher and lower rates. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Short-run-economic-predictions-fig-2.pngThe relationship between rate changes and GDP growth is noisy https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Short-run-economic-predictions-fig-3.pngInvestors have not shown skill at timing the market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Short-run-economic-predictions-fig-4-1-1024x538.pngBuy and hold vs. timing strategies. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Short-run-economic-predictions-fig-5-1-1024x780.pngThe economy has overcome many rough periods over time. https://arcadiawm.com/the-pitfalls-and-benefits-of-overconfidence/ 2023-12-11T17:51:04+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/12-2023-arcadia-overconfidence-min-1.jpegLearn how overconfidence can impact clients' financial decision making and how you can guide them toward better investment decisions. https://arcadiawm.com/taking-a-holistic-view-of-your-investment-journey/ 2023-12-11T18:06:30+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/12-2023-Arcadia-holistic-view-min-1.jpegAs we approach the new year, we unpack why short term market predictions often fall short. The hazards associated with these annual forecasts can be avoided by focusing on long term data and considering your investment journey as a whole. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/holistic-journey-figure-1-974x1024.pngperformance estimates for the S&P 500 in 2023 Varied Widely https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/holistic-journey-figure-2-1024x625.pngconsensus S&P 500 estimates vs. actual returns https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/holistic-journey-figure-3-1024x395.pnglong term average returns and volatility across asset classes. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/holistic-journey-figure-4-1024x917.pngThe probability of positive U.S. equity returns increases with time https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/holistic-journey-figure-5-1024x644.pngS&P 500 Index toatl return and headlines. https://arcadiawm.com/fourth-quarter-2023-quarterly-market-review/ 2024-01-05T18:36:28+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-Q4-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail.png https://arcadiawm.com/the-stories-of-2023/ 2024-01-16T18:47:25+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-2023-stories-min.jpegstories of 2023 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-2023-Stories-Fig-1-1024x643.pngS&P 500 Index Return and Headlines in 2023 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-2023-Stories-Fig-2-1024x485.pngS&P 500 Index by the Numbers https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-2023-Stories-Fig-3-1024x926.pngInflation closed in on the Fed https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/CPI.pngconsumer price index https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-2023-Sstories-Fig-4-1024x908.pngthe pace of interest rate increases slowed in 2023, with rate cuts now expected in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/why-do-we-mispredict-the-future/ 2024-01-16T18:54:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Future-min.jpegwhat impacts might mispredicting the future have on financial decision making? https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Future-Fig-1-753x1024.pngIn reality, our realistic predicitions often mirror our best case predictions https://arcadiawm.com/diversification-vs-concentration-in-the-era-of-the-magnificent-seven/ 2024-02-15T13:37:29+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-2024-Arcadia-diversification-min.jpegThe Magnificent Seven, Diversification and Long Term Success https://arcadiawm.com/what-interest-rate-cuts-may-mean-for-bond-returns/ 2024-02-15T13:53:06+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-2024-interest-rate-cuts-min.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-02-15-at-8.40.21 AM-1024x331.pngFed futures prices imply a high expected probability of four or more rate cuts in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-02-15-at-8.40.51 AM-1024x400.pngHistorically, periods of rapid fed fund rate increases have been followed by quick declines https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-02-15-at-8.43.00 AM-1024x387.pngCore fixed income has delivered meaningfully higher returns in falling rate environments. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-02-15-at-8.44.31 AM-1024x486.pngLarger short term mrate cuts have historically meant higher returns for core fixed income https://arcadiawm.com/stuck-at-home-mortgage-rates-and-the-endowment-effect/ 2024-03-07T10:38:13+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-endowment-effect-min-1.jpegMany today might feel stuck in their homes not wanting to give up existing low rate mortgages. We unpack how the endowment effect may be playing a role. https://arcadiawm.com/reflecting-on-four-years-since-the-pre-covid-market-peak/ 2024-03-07T10:50:52+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-pre-covid-market-peak-min.jpeglooking back at the dramatic ups and dwons of the market since the pre covid market peak, we're struck by the market's remakrable resilience and reminded that patience and time help fuel the power of a long term investment philosophy. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/jfk-airport-1024x374.pngjfk airport https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/SP-Index-500-1024x539.pngThe S&P 500 Index Since its PRe COVID Peak on Februrary 19, 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/market-declines-1024x459.pngmarket declines happen https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/new-heights-1024x515.pngDespite declines, markets keep reaching new heights https://arcadiawm.com/first-quarter-2024-quarterly-market-review/ 2024-04-10T12:18:36+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024-Q1-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-min-1.pngQMR Q1 Arcadia https://arcadiawm.com/deciphering-the-prolonged-yield-curve-inversion/ 2024-05-15T09:20:05+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-yield-curve-inversion-min.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1-11.09.27 AM-1024x1004.pngThe treasury curve has remained inverted for nearly two years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-1024x424.pngwhile many past inversions have preceded recession, it https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-1024x480.pngtotal value of treasuries outstanding has grown more than 60% since 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-4-1024x498.pngshort term debt has dominated treasuryt issuance since the yield curve inverted https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-5.pngmarkets have delivered strong returns since the yield curve inverted in 2022 https://arcadiawm.com/unlocking-life-well-being-insights-from-the-third-generation-of-behavioral-finance/ 2024-05-15T09:49:22+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-life-well-being-min.jpegUnlocking Life Well Being: Insights from the Third Generation of Behavioral Finance https://arcadiawm.com/understanding-the-three-dimensions-of-life-well-being-how-income-affects-them/ 2024-06-10T11:34:41+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/MAY-2023-min.jpegExplore the distinctions among experienced, evaluative and meaning well being. How do income levels influence these aspects of life well being and why might some people value one more than another? https://arcadiawm.com/going-back-to-t1/ 2024-06-10T11:42:44+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/T1-settlement-min.jpegWe unpack the beenfits of the shift to a shorter T+1 settlement cycle for U.S. securities. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-1024x437.pngMillions of Transactions Worth Trillions of Dollars Settle Each Year https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-1.pngLifecycle of a Trade https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-1024x356.pngThe Recent Move to T+1 Continues an Ongoing Effort to Settle Trades Faster for U.S. Investors https://arcadiawm.com/second-quarter-2024-quarterly-market-review/ 2024-07-09T13:13:45+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024-Q2-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-min-1.png https://arcadiawm.com/think-big-picture-when-it-comes-to-elections/ 2024-08-15T13:37:51+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/elections-min.jpegHere’s the bottom line. Markets may experience heightened volatility leading up to elections, but that tends to pass, so we shouldn’t let that scare us from sticking with our portfolios. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1.pngAverage VIX Index Levels Before, During and After U.S. elections from 1992 to 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-1-1024x328.pngAverage U.S. Stock Market Returns by Winning Party in Election Years and Four Year Terms https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-1-1024x836.pngEvents Impacting Markets Around US Presidential Elections https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-4-1-1024x338.pngDespite election noise, sticking with your financial plan may pay off https://arcadiawm.com/beyond-the-lemonade-stand-cultivating-financially-savvy-kids/ 2024-08-15T13:43:42+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/financially-savvy-kids-min.jpegWe unpack valuable insights from the latest developmental pyschology research on why cultivating financially savvy kids is important. https://arcadiawm.com/filial-loyalty-what-adult-children-do-for-their-elderly-parents/ 2024-09-09T12:03:02+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/filial-loyalty-min.jpegTo better support those in our professional and social circles, we should recognize and respect their sense of filial loyalty and duty toward their parents. https://arcadiawm.com/not-so-fast-lessons-from-a-short-term-panic-event/ 2024-09-09T12:17:33+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/short-term-panic-event-min.jpegThe Japanese market fell hard on August 5. Volatility and investor anxiety quickly spread through global markets. What followed was a prime example of why, in the face uncertainty, investors who keep their focus on the long term are often rewarded. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1-1.pngMassive Value Was Lost in the Japanese Market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-2.pngThe August VIX Spike Reached Levels Never Seen Outside of 2008 and 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-2-1024x375.pngSelling Japanese Stocks After August 5 Likely Meant Missing the Recovery https://arcadiawm.com/third-quarter-2024-quarterly-market-review/ 2024-10-04T14:06:52+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/q3-2024-arcadia-qmr-thumb.png https://arcadiawm.com/life-well-being-as-a-portfolio/ 2024-12-02T10:52:16+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Blog-Image-Cover-1.jpegLife Well Being as a Portfolio https://arcadiawm.com/what-todays-valuations-are-telling-investors/ 2024-12-02T10:52:23+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Blog-Image-Cover.jpegWhat today's valuations are telling investors https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-11-12-at-10.35.02 AM.pngFigure 1 | U.S. Large Cap and Large Growth Prices Have Risen Much Faster Than Their Earnings Over the Last 10 Years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-11-12-at-10.35.14 AM.pngFigure 2 | Beyond U.S. Large Caps, P/E Ratios Have Remained Similar or Become More Attractive Over the Last 10 Years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-11-12-at-10.35.26 AM.pngFigure 3 | Change in Valuation Spreads of Global Asset Classes vs. the S&P 500 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2024-11-12-at-10.35.34 AM.pngFigure 4 | Differences in Valuations Within U.S. Large Cap Growth Stocks https://arcadiawm.com/election-results-shouldnt-dictate-your-investments/ 2024-12-10T12:18:33+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Election-Results-Shouldnt-Dictate-Your-Investment.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1-2.pngcumulative global stock market return, 2020 https://arcadiawm.com/2024-market-forecasters-report-card/ 2024-12-10T12:38:40+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-report-card-min.jpegwe examine 2020 market forecasters' report card has measured up against reality. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-1.png2024 Forecasts Missed the Mark https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-2-1024x935.pngConsensus S&P 500 Estimates vs. Actual Returns (2018 2024) https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-1-892x1024.pngTime puts the odds in your favor https://arcadiawm.com/the-psychology-of-big-life-decisions/ 2024-12-10T12:46:57+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-life-decisions-min.jpegwe unpack the psychology behind making big life decisions, providing strategies for navigating these choices. https://arcadiawm.com/its-been-a-whale-of-a-year/ 2025-01-14T09:09:26+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Whale-of-a-year-min.jpeg2024 was a year of showcasing resilience in the markets amid many uncertainties. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-2.pngs&p 500 index return and headlines in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-3.pngS&P 500 Index by the Numbers in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-2-1024x923.pngThe U.S. Economy Was Resilient, Yet Again, in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4.pnggetting back to normal in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/international-stocks-and-recency-bias/ 2025-01-14T09:27:19+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-international-stocks-min.jpegInternational Stocks and Recency Bias https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-4.pngU.S. Stocks have underperformed international stocks many times before, not just recently https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-4-300x141.pngU.S. and International Stock Performance Looked Very Different Early Last Decade https://arcadiawm.com/fourth-quarter-2024-quarterly-market-review/ 2025-01-16T10:45:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024-Q4-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-min.png https://arcadiawm.com/investment-risk-investor-risk-tolerance-and-behavioral-goals-based-portfolios/ 2025-02-10T22:57:30+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-10-investment-risk.jpeggoals based portfolios https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.07.57 PM-1024x655.pngRisk Tolerance Scenario https://arcadiawm.com/heavy-weights-the-real-story-behind-current-market-concentration/ 2025-02-10T23:03:42+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/02-2025-heavy-weights-min.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.38.35 PM-1024x354.pngTop 10 Weight in U.S. Large and Large Growth Indexes Is Highest in Last 35 Years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.38.44 PM-1.pngMany Markets Around the World Are More Concentrated Than the U.S. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.38.53 PM.pngThe Mag 7 Stocks Drove Much of the U.S. Market Return the Last Two Years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.39.10 PM-1024x504.pngRise in Large Cap Growth Valuations Has Coincided with Higher ConcentrationPanel https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2025-02-10-at-10.39.42 PM-1.pngOutperformance From the Top of the Market Hasn’t Persisted Historically https://arcadiawm.com/lessons-from-the-oracle/ 2025-03-10T17:15:26+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/03-2025-Arcadia-Warren-Buffet-min.jpegWarren Buffett’s investment wisdom on stocks, dividends, and why price matters in building long term wealth. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-5.pngStocks Have historically Provided a Far Greater Defense Against Inflation Than Cash https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-3.pngValue Is Found in Quality Companies with Good Prices, Not Just Low Prices https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-3.pngSeveral Top Companies Don https://arcadiawm.com/the-illusion-of-wealth/ 2025-03-10T17:29:01+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/03-2025-Arcadia-wealth-min.jpegExplore the Lump Sum vs Annuity retirement decision and understand how perceptions of wealth impact this important financial choice. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1-3.pngPerceived adequacy between subjects of amounts of money in 401(k) plan https://arcadiawm.com/first-quarter-2025-quarterly-market-review/ 2025-04-07T10:04:55+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2025-Q1-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-min-1.pngquarterly market review Q1 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/deglobalization-currency-movements-the-case-for-global-diversification/ 2025-05-09T11:47:28+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/diversification-min.jpegWhile the merits of global diversification have always been strong, recent events provide new considerations that point back to the potential risk management benefits of spreading our portfolios across the broader opportunity set. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-6.pngU.S. Outperformance Over the Last 15+ Years Has Led to a Larger Share of the Global Market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-5-1024x346.pngInternational Market Exposure Has Helped in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-3.pngThe Weakening Dollar in 2025 Has Helped Non U.S. Stocks Held in USD https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4-1.pngPast Periods of Non U.S. Outperformance Have Tended to Coincide with a Weakening Dollar https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-5.pngTrade Between the U.S. and Other Countries Was Massive in 2024 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-5-panel-b-1024x437.pngTotal U.S. Imports/Exports of Goods and Services by Top 10 Trade Partners in 2024 ($B USD) https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-6-1024x424.pngInvestment Is Also a Global Game https://arcadiawm.com/the-headwinds-vs-tailwinds-asymmetry/ 2025-05-09T11:50:16+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/headwinds-vs-tailwinds-min.jpegExplore how the headwinds vs. tailwinds bias shapes our perceptions—and how recognizing it can lead to more thoughtful financial decisions. https://arcadiawm.com/three-things-investors-should-know-about-todays-bond-market/ 2025-06-10T21:10:52+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-bonds-min.jpegwhile opinions on the U.S. bond market make headlines, we share a few facts that may help long term bond investors https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-1-4.pngGovernment Bonds Dominate the U.S. Bond Market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-4.pngCorporate Bonds Have Historically Offered Higher Growth Potential https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-4.pngU.S. Corporate Bonds Have Historically Offered Attractive Risk/Return CharacteristicsPanel https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-4-2.pngGlobal Markets Can Offer Upside https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-5-1.pngTrade offs in Returns and Volatility in Balanced Stock/Bond Portfolios https://arcadiawm.com/dont-leave-the-best-for-last-moving-from-accumulation-to-decumulation/ 2025-06-10T21:19:37+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-best-for-last-min.jpegFear and excessive frugality can stall retirement joy. Learn how shifting from saving to spending can support a more fulfilling and generous next chapter. https://arcadiawm.com/second-quarter-2025-quarterly-market-review/ 2025-07-09T12:30:06+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2025-Q2-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-1.png https://arcadiawm.com/whats-in-a-gdp-number/ 2025-08-14T10:25:35+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-gdp.jpegwhats in a gdp number https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-7.pngQuarterly U.S. GDP Growth https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-min-1.pngWhat Makes Up GDP? https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-min-1.pngTotal U.S. GDP by Demand Category in Q2 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4-min-1.pngContribution to Quarterly GDP Growth by Demand Category https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-6-min-1.pngDon’t Let Uncertainty in the Moment Distract from the Big Picture https://arcadiawm.com/irrational-or-motivated-a-fresh-look-at-confirmation-bias/ 2025-08-14T11:02:34+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-confirmation-bias-min.jpegLearn how motivated reasoning may influence confirmation errors, leading people to favor confirming evidence over disconfirming information. https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-8.pngPredictions of Changes in Stock Prices and Their Realizations https://arcadiawm.com/third-quarter-2025-quarterly-market-review/ 2025-10-15T21:59:56+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2025-Q3-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail-min-1.pngThird Quarter 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/what-do-declining-interest-rates-mean-for-stock-returns/ 2025-10-22T19:44:50+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-declining-interest-rates.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-9.pngInterest Rates Are Expected to Decline, but the Pace Is to Be Determined https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2A.pngFigure 2 | How U.S. Stocks Perform During Different Interest Rate Regimes. Panel A | Average Monthly Return for the U.S. Stock Market https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2b.pngPanel B | Average Monthly Returns for the U.S. Stock Market vs. U.S. Small Value Stocks https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-4.pngHistorical 10 Year Treasury Rate Cycles https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4A.pngFigure 4 | U.S. Stock Returns During Interest Rate CyclesPanel A | Full Interest Rate Cycles https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4B.pngPanel B | First and Second Halves of Interest Rate Cycles https://arcadiawm.com/would-you-drive-looking-through-the-rear-view-mirror/ 2025-10-22T19:46:35+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-rear-view-mirror.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/whats-up-with-gold/ 2025-11-13T12:09:44+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-gold-min-1.jpegwhats up with gold https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-10.pngThe Price of Gold Has Risen More Than 140% in the Last 3 Years https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-2-5.pngGold Prices Have Risen Since the Introduction of Gold ETFs in 2004 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-3-5.pngGold Has Become a Greater Share of Central Bank Reserves https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/fig-4-3.pngHistorical Returns, Volatility and Correlations https://arcadiawm.com/fourth-quarter-2025-quarterly-market-review/ 2026-01-08T13:07:46+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/QMR-Q4-2025-Arcadia.png https://arcadiawm.com/the-next-chapter-short-term-thinking-and-long-term-planning/ 2026-01-13T17:31:04+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/arcadia-the-next-chapter-min.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/what-investors-can-learn-from-2025-market-trends/ 2026-01-13T17:46:19+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/01-2026-Arcaida-2025-Market-Trends.jpg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-11.pngS&P 500’s 2025 Journey: Resilience Amid Headlines and Volatility https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-6.pngS&P 500 Index by the Numbers in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-5.pngNon U.S. Stocks Stole the Show in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4-2-1024x458.pngMany Non U.S. Market Asset Classes Outperformed U.S. Stocks in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-5-1.pngYield Curves Steepened in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-6-1.pngA Banner Year for U.S. and Global Bonds in 2025 https://arcadiawm.com/how-aging-changes-financial-decision-making-insights-from-neuroeconomics/ 2026-01-13T17:56:49+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/01-2026-Arcadia-Neuroeconomics.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/military-conflicts-and-global-stock-returns/ 2026-03-06T13:37:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Military-Conflicts.jpgMilitary Conflicts and Global Stock Returns https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Military-Conflicts-Figure-1.pngU.S. Stocks Have Shown More Volatility in the Short Term but Resilience Over the Longer Term Following Major Conflicts https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Military-Conflict-figure-2-1024x492.pngWith Military Conflicts, Long Term Discipline Is Key for Investors https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Military-Conflict-Figure-3.pngNon U.S. Stocks, Like the U.S., Have Benefited Investors Who Stay the Course Through Geopolitical Conflicts https://arcadiawm.com/can-we-learn-to-avoid-cognitive-errors/ 2026-03-06T13:45:05+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-cognitive-errors.jpgCan We Learn to Avoid Cognitive Errors? https://arcadiawm.com/first-quarter-2026-quarterly-market-review/ 2026-04-08T09:10:19+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/QMR-Q1-2026-Arcadia-Thumbnail.png https://arcadiawm.com/social-security-claiming-decisions-dont-dismiss-the-math-but-it-doesnt-always-apply-to-real-life/ 2026-07-08T14:20:37+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/social-security.jpgSocial Security Claiming Decisions: Don’t Dismiss the Math, but It Doesn’t Always Apply to Real Life https://arcadiawm.com/rocket-fuel-the-potential-impacts-of-major-index-changes-this-june/ 2026-07-08T14:20:45+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/rocket-fuel.jpgRocket Fuel: The Potential Impacts of Major Index Changes This June https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-1-12.pngJune 2026 Russell Index Reconstitution Highlights https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-2-7.pngHuge Sums Will Trade Hands in June as Index Funds Aim to Stay in Line with Announced Russell Index Changes https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-3-6-1024x404.pngToo Much to Trade? https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/figure-4-3.pngCRSP Index Fast Tracked IPOs Have, on Average, Cost Index Tracking Funds https://arcadiawm.com/second-quarter-2026-quarterly-market-review/ 2026-07-14T11:56:37+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026-Q2-QMR-Arcadia-Thumbnail.png https://arcadiawm.com/mortgages-beyond-the-math/ 2026-07-14T13:09:46+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Mortgages.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/the-evolution-of-global-markets/ 2026-07-14T13:14:32+00:00 https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Arcadia-Global-Markets.jpeg https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Fig-1-The-U.S.-Isnt-the-Only-Market-Thats-Growing-1024x713.pngThe U.S. Isn’t the Only Market That’s Growing https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-2-Emerging-Markets-Growth-Isnt-Limited-to-Outliers.pngEmerging Markets Growth Isn’t Limited to Outliers https://arcadiawm.com/wp-content/uploads/Figure-3-U.S.-Market-Valuation-Multiples-Have-Expanded-at-a-Far-Higher-Rate-than-Non-U.S.-Markets.pngU.S. Market Valuation Multiples Have Expanded at a Far Higher Rate than Non U.S. Markets